"shpuker" (shpuker)
10/26/2020 at 19:40 • Filed to: None
0
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"shpuker" (shpuker)
10/26/2020 at 19:40 • Filed to: None | 0
| 13 |
The year is 2022; the pandemic has ended, airports are once again bustling with cheap suits and cheaper bourbon, you no longer need to wear a hazmat suit to take your dog out for a shit in the morning. Life is good, and the best selling crossover in the United States is an electric vehicle; the Tesla Model Y.
I lead with this only half in jest. Over the past 18 months Tesla has pulled a rabbit out of it’s hat with Model 3 deliveries. They’re on track for an excess of 200,000 units in 2020, and cutting out the months of March-June gives them a theoretical 2020 sales volume, sans-pandemic, of over 300,000 units. This puts them, theoretically, at #9 in total sales volume for all vehicles & #3 for sedans.
WARNING: Some brash assumptions incoming.
Extrapolating their upper and lower bound sales at 28,000 and 35,000 units projected in 2021 gives me a sales volume ceiling
for the Model 3 at 378,000 units for 2021, AKA potentially
the #1 selling sedan in the US. That brings us to a combination of things; first and foremost the fact that crossovers inherently sell better in the US than sedans, thus pushing this ceiling figure higher for the Model Y prior to considerations of battery supply and such. And second things second, general demand for EVs appears to have finally shifted from “Bay Area Tech Bros” towards the general public. Ever the more evidence of this would be the validation of companies like Ford & VW finally launching valid EV contenders with the Mach-e and the ID4.
Speaking of those two, why won’t they drive away volume from Tesla? Short answer, they almost certainly will. I think the Model Y will take the top spot anyways, and that it’ll drag sales of it’s competitors with it. Here I expect we’ll see at least a continuous, if not accelerating rate of adoption. This gives a theoretical EV total sales figure for 2022 of well over 1,000,000 vehicles, likely close to the 1.5M vehicles mark. I’ll cut myself off here but just for fun toss in my projected breakdown of those sales below
Total 2022 EV Sales: 1.45M Vehicles
Tesla Model 3: 335k
Tesla Model Y: 488k
Tesla Model S: 120k
VW ID4: 227k
VW ID6: 55k
Ford Mustang Mach-e: 86k
Others: 139k
flatisflat
> shpuker
10/26/2020 at 20:24 |
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In the realm of EVs, Tesla IS the hallmark brand regardless of it being so much younger than all of its competitors — also aided by the fact that it is all-in on EVs vs. just “here you go, we’re offering one of those EVs now too!”
The long arduous path Tesla has taken has squarely put them in the pilot seat for what is this inevitable change in the market. I’d be surprised if they aren’t tops multiple years running.
newnamesameme
> shpuker
10/26/2020 at 20:26 |
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I think this is w/in the realm of possibility. I saw a Model Y for the first time in my redneck desert town a few days ago and it looked good! It was in a beautiful shade of red and i liked it a lot. If EVs are finding there way into the heart of ‘real’ america where i live they are definitely going places.
EVs wont solve climate change or anything but its also true that ICE vehicles are only making climate change worse. Bring on the EVs.
SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
> shpuker
10/26/2020 at 20:33 |
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We’ll see...
Same market, same model sales are pretty flat. And the US EV market, as a whole, had been in decline for 5 quarters straight before The Virus hit.
Most of the “fantastic growth” of TMY is coming at the expense of Model3.
They’re still far off the half-million units they first promised for 2018
krustywantout
> shpuker
10/26/2020 at 20:35 |
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You might be right about Model Y sales but I skeptical of the other models. The Model S is old and sales have been declining so I don’t see how they will sustain sales. Model 3 will also decline since Model Y will eat into it as will other EVs that will be available in that segment. There will be used Model 3 inventory for people to buy and thus lower new Model 3 sales. Once you include the Tycan and Mercedes Evs into the mix, there is more competition on the premium market and Tesla’penetration rate will slow down. Lastly, you also need to include the F series EV into the sales totals because it will be significant. Tesla’s questionable build quality will also make some people hesitate and they will head to established car brands that now have products to offer.
And then there’s the weird world of Tesla to factor in :
gettingoldercarguy
> shpuker
10/26/2020 at 20:59 |
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Great article and thanks for posting!
415s30 W123TSXWaggoIIIIIIo ( •_•))°)
> shpuker
10/26/2020 at 21:26 |
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The day I want to drive in something that feels like an appliance I’ll be right there with them... And will there ever be a new Model S? Will they just make that same car forever like a Nissan?
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shpuker
> SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
10/26/2020 at 22:54 |
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Sales overall are declining, yes. Incentive cash is helping EVs all the more as a result.
I do expect M-Y to pull sales from the M-3, but I suspect continued growth in the EV realm will drive both higher. Ultimately time will tell though
On the last note, Tesla’s claims have always been comedy if anything. I don’t expect that’ll change anytime soon
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shpuker
> newnamesameme
10/26/2020 at 22:55 |
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They’re a key element towards a
net-zero carbon future, just not the
only element.
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shpuker
> krustywantout
10/26/2020 at 22:56 |
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Oh I definitely only scratched the surface/didn’t account for all avenues here. More of an entertaining thought experiment.
Who is the Leader - 404 / Blog No Longer Available
> shpuker
10/27/2020 at 01:16 |
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No Cybertruck? Because brutalist slabs of aluminum with some batteries shoved in them might have enough appeal to drive sales away from Rivian and the new electric F150.
Nauraushaun
> shpuker
10/27/2020 at 01:38 |
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Should set a reminder for late 2022 to come back and reassess these figures :)
pip bip - choose Corrour
> shpuker
10/27/2020 at 03:16 |
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and yet Victoria will still be wearin g fu cking facemasks
Tapas
> shpuker
10/27/2020 at 13:21 |
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As in Model WHYY is this happening.
The cross over apocalypse is upon us.